BTC Price Prediction: Navigating the December Crossroads

#BTC

• Technical indicators show Bitcoin in consolidation with MACD divergence suggesting potential momentum shift
• Regulatory developments including Senate December vote could provide market structure clarity
• Record options open interest and institutional movements create complex sentiment backdrop

BTC Price Prediction

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Shows Mixed Signals Amid Current Correction

Bitcoin is currently trading at $91,598.88, below its 20-day moving average of $93,437.27, indicating short-term bearish pressure. The MACD reading of -415.85 shows weakening momentum, though the price remains above the Bollinger Band lower boundary of $80,702.09, suggesting potential support levels.

According to BTCC financial analyst Robert, 'The technical picture presents a consolidation phase with Bitcoin finding support above $80,700. While below the 20-day MA, the MACD divergence suggests we may be approaching an inflection point where buyers could re-enter the market.'

Market Sentiment: Regulatory Progress Battles Bearish Streak

Market sentiment reflects a tug-of-war between positive regulatory developments and extended bearish indicators. The U.S. Senate's December vote on crypto market structure legislation could provide regulatory clarity, while Bitcoin's fear streak reaches 16 days - the longest bearish sentiment since 2022.

BTCC financial analyst Robert notes, 'The record high options open interest amid volatility, combined with institutional movements like SpaceX's $105M bitcoin transfer, creates a complex sentiment backdrop. The upcoming Senate vote represents a potential catalyst that could override current technical weakness.'

Factors Influencing BTC's Price

Will Bitcoin Rebound in December? What Data and Experts Say

Bitcoin's November slump saw prices crater from $110,000 to $80,600, marking what could be its worst monthly performance since 2018. Yet a 10.6% rally this week pushed BTC back above $90,000, sparking debate over whether this signals a December rebound or a bear market head fake.

Thanksgiving-thinned liquidity clouds short-term price action, but macro tides may be turning. AI bubble fears that weighed on tech stocks are easing, while traders now price an 84.7% probability of Fed rate cuts by December 10—a potential catalyst for risk assets.

Bitcoin Munari’s Layer-1 Strategy Converges With Fed’s Stablecoin and AI Payment Focus

The Federal Reserve’s Payments Innovation Conference underscored a pivotal moment for digital assets, with stablecoins and AI-driven fraud detection dominating discussions. Governor Christopher J. Waller framed the debate: technological adoption must balance efficiency against systemic risks. BlackRock, Circle, and chainlink representatives dissected stablecoins as potential settlement tools, while regulators flagged operational resilience concerns.

Bitcoin Munari enters this landscape with a fixed 21 million supply and a staged migration plan. Its technical transparency—unusual for pre-launch projects—aligns with the Fed’s call for secure innovation. The conference’s emphasis on payment infrastructure modernization mirrors Munari’s Layer-1 ambitions, positioning it as a case study in blockchain’s next evolution.

Gold Emerges as Hedge Against AI Bubble Risks While Tech Stocks Stumble

Gold's rally accelerates as Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett flags it as a potential hedge against an AI-driven market bubble. The warning comes amid a 10%+ slump in key tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft, with the World Economic Forum drawing parallels to dot-com era excesses.

Precious metals are breaking out technically—gold exits a falling wedge pattern while silver hits record highs. Meanwhile, Bitcoin shows bullish signals via the Copper/Gold RSI ratio, suggesting crypto may also benefit from rotation away from overheated AI equities.

Central banks are sounding alarms. The Bank of England explicitly warned that AI stock corrections could Ripple through financial systems, reinforcing gold's traditional safe-haven appeal during periods of speculative excess.

U.S. Senate Sets December Vote on Crypto Market Structure Bill, Potentially Resolving Securities vs. Commodities Debate

The U.S. Senate is advancing toward a pivotal December 8, 2025 vote on landmark cryptocurrency market structure legislation. The bill aims to resolve the longstanding regulatory ambiguity surrounding digital assets by clarifying whether tokens should be classified as securities or commodities—a decision that will determine primary oversight between the SEC and CFTC.

Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees are preparing separate draft proposals, with plans to merge them into unified legislation for full chamber consideration. Former President TRUMP has endorsed the measure as critical for establishing U.S. dominance in digital assets, while market analysts suggest passage could prove particularly bullish for Bitcoin's institutional adoption.

Outstanding disagreements persist regarding DeFi provisions, with several sections remaining bracketed in committee drafts. The legislation's progress comes amid growing pressure to establish clear regulatory frameworks following recent market turbulence and international competition for crypto leadership.

Bitcoin Fear Streak Hits 16 Days—Longest Bearish Sentiment Since 2022

Bitcoin's Fear & Greed Index has languished in extreme fear territory for 16 consecutive days, marking the longest stretch of bearish sentiment since 2022. The index, which synthesizes trading volume, volatility, and social media signals, now reads below 25—a threshold reserved for market capitulation.

November's crypto crash continues to reverberate. Investor psychology remains fractured, with the current streak surpassing even the FTX collapse's aftermath. The last comparable period of sustained fear occurred during the Terra-Luna debacle.

Analysts note such prolonged fear often precedes violent rebounds. 'Markets overshoot in both directions,' says Galaxy Digital's Mike Novogratz. 'When the crowd is this fearful, smart money accumulates.'

Bitcoin Options Open Interest Hits Record High Amid Market Volatility

Bitcoin-denominated options open interest has surged to an all-time high, signaling heightened activity among derivatives traders. Glassnode's latest report reveals a sharp increase in positions as BTC's price exhibits significant volatility.

Options contracts, which grant the right but not the obligation to buy or sell bitcoin at predetermined prices, are gaining traction. Call options reflect bullish sentiment, while puts indicate bearish bets. Once dominated by futures, the derivatives market now sees options rivaling futures in open interest.

The spike in activity coincides with turbulent price action, suggesting traders are repositioning. Market participants appear to be leveraging options to hedge or speculate during the downturn, underscoring the growing sophistication of crypto derivatives.

EU Appoints Financial Crime Chief Amid Escalating Crypto Money-Laundering Threats

Europol is poised to name Colonel Lopez of Italy’s Guardia di Finanza as head of its European Financial and Economic Crime Centre (EFECC), according to sources familiar with the matter. The appointment, expected to be confirmed next month, comes as European authorities grapple with surging cases of cryptocurrency-enabled money laundering.

Prosecutors face mounting challenges tracking illicit crypto flows, exemplified by the recent U.S. seizure of $15 billion in Bitcoin tied to a Cambodian cyber fraud ring. Analysts warn current enforcement mechanisms are being outpaced by sophisticated criminal networks using digital assets for cross-border fraud and sanctions evasion.

Europol’s Claire Georges declined to confirm Lopez’s appointment, noting the EFECC’s mandate to coordinate multinational investigations. The MOVE signals Brussels’ hardening stance on crypto-related financial crime as regulatory scrutiny intensifies across major exchanges.

Coinbase Wallet Rebalancing Distorts $68B BTC On-Chain Signals

Coinbase’s internal wallet restructuring has triggered false alarms across crypto analytics platforms. Since November 22, 2025, the exchange’s movement of approximately 800,000 BTC has artificially inflated long-term holder distribution metrics by $68 billion—a technical artifact, not a market sell-off.

Analysts including Axel Adler note these custodial operations routinely distort key indicators like LTH Net Position Change and Spent Output Age Bands. The scale of Coinbase’s holdings means even administrative transfers can mimic panic-selling patterns during fragile market conditions.

This episode underscores the growing disconnect between raw chain data and institutional custody mechanics. As exchanges like Coinbase, Binance, and Bitget manage increasingly complex asset pools, their operational footprints now routinely skew market sentiment indicators.

CalPERS Suffers Significant Losses on Bitcoin-Proxy Strategy Investment

California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS), the largest U.S. pension fund, has seen its $144 million investment in Strategy (MSTR) plummet to roughly $80 million amid a broader crypto market downturn. The fund acquired 448,157 shares of the Bitcoin-proxy stock in Q3, only to watch its value erode by nearly 45% this quarter.

Strategy’s decline mirrors Bitcoin’s volatility and a risk-off sentiment battering high-beta tech and crypto-linked assets. JPMorgan analysts warn of potential index exclusions for Strategy, estimating up to $2.8 billion in outflows if removed from the MSCI USA index—a move that could exacerbate selling pressure.

For CalPERS, the loss remains a rounding error in its $550 billion portfolio. But the episode underscores institutional exposure to crypto’s wild swings, even through traditional market instruments.

SpaceX Shifts $105M in Bitcoin to Coinbase Prime Amid Market Volatility

Bitcoin breached the $90,000 threshold after days of stagnation, offering fleeting respite in a market gripped by volatility and selling pressure. The cryptocurrency remains 30% below its all-time high, fueling debates among analysts about whether a bear market has taken hold. Retail and institutional confidence is waning as fear dominates sentiment.

Arkham data reveals SpaceX moved 1,163 BTC ($105.23M) to Coinbase Prime, signaling a potential custody transition. Large institutional transfers often trigger market anxiety, as they may precede sell-offs or treasury rebalancing. This movement adds complexity to a landscape already strained by thinning liquidity and macroeconomic uncertainty.

The $90,000 breakout lacks conviction without follow-through. Price action remains vulnerable to further downside unless Bitcoin establishes a stronger recovery structure. All eyes are on whether this level becomes a springboard or another false dawn in the ongoing correction.

Fidelity Strategist Views Bitcoin Price Correction as Market Health Reset

Bitcoin's 11.8% two-week decline represents a structural purge rather than a breakdown, according to Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's Global Macro Director. The sell-off mirrors broader speculative asset retrenchment—from meme stocks to tech IPOs—as overheated markets shed leverage and restore discipline.

"This is an orderly reset, not a crisis," Timmer observed, noting synchronized pullbacks across risk assets that rallied sharply through late 2025. The correction positions Bitcoin for sustainable growth by clearing speculative excess while preserving its long-term investment thesis.

How High Will BTC Price Go?

Based on current technical and fundamental analysis, Bitcoin appears positioned for a potential rebound in December, though the path higher faces significant resistance levels.

BTCC financial analyst Robert suggests, 'The convergence of technical support around $80,700 with potential regulatory catalysts creates a foundation for recovery. A break above the 20-day MA at $93,400 could target the $106,000 region, though sustained momentum would require overcoming the current fear sentiment and options market pressure.'